The skies between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River bring out nature’s best, and worst. As we move through March into April and May, spring tornado season will arrive and I believe we are going to have a wetter-thanaverage spring with a continuation of near to below average temperatures. The big question is: Will we have an active severe weather season?

If you have participated in the NBC Action Weather Blog or are a regular viewer of NBC Action News, then you have likely heard about my theory the LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle). It was actually named by our bloggers years ago. We believe the weather pattern sets up between Oct. 1 and Nov 10. The weather pattern then begins cycling and repeats over and over again until it falls apart late in the summer. This is the LRC. Every year is unique and this year’s weather pattern certainly has been a “one of a kind.” Brett Anthony, Jeremy Nelson, Jeff Penner and I have used the LRC to help us in long-term and shorter-range forecasting. It has provided us with a huge forecasting advantage. NBC Action News has now been #1 in forecasting accuracy for five years in a row.

We have experimented with the LRC the past two years by making long-range predictions. Last year our weather team accurately predicted April’s killing hard freeze and snowstorm weeks ahead of time. This year, we have issued long-range forecasts that have become more specific. When everyone else was expecting a warm January and February, our weather team issued an Arctic Air Watch for the second half of January, and we forecasted up to seven winter storms were ahead of us. This long-range forecast issued on Jan. 2 was verified, and this gives us high confidence as we look ahead into spring.

Based on my theory, we believe this weather pattern will continue through the spring and into the summer. So expect above-average rainfall with cooler-than-average temperatures between now and June. A wet pattern can bring severe weather, but it doesn’t guarantee it. Temperatures also need to be warm to create instability. However, I believe there will be a few set-ups for severe thunderstorms as usual this spring, and flooding could be one of the more significant impacts from this year’s LRC pattern.

May and June are usually the most active months for severe thunderstorms and most of our tornadoes have occurred during these two months. It’s impossible to know how many days might bring tornadoes each spring. However, with the cool and wet pattern we expect locally based on the LRC, tornadic setups may initially be pushed south into Oklahoma and Texas. There they will eventually lift northward into Kansas and western Missouri for an active month of May. As soon as we get past mid-June the threat of tornadoes goes way down because the jet stream typically weakens and lifts north into Canada by around June 15.

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