There are at least seventeen presidential polls on the national level, and a lot of states, political parties and groups conduct their own poll. So, there are probably hundreds, even thousands of polls predicting the winner of the 2008 presidential race.
Which is the most accurate? Good Question?
Our reporting partners at the Kansas City Star compared five recent polls, and weighed in on their accuracy.
Here are their results:
Gallup (Traditional): Obama 49%, McCain 46%. Figured to be the most reliable because it deals with likely voters. This would put McCain inside the margin of error and shows the race remains tighter than most other polls predict.
Gallup (Expanded): Obama 51%, McCain 44%. Less accurate because it includes those who say they will be voting at their word.
Pew Research: Obama 52%, MCCain 36%. The widest margin, and factors in that all registered voters will likely vote.
ABCNews/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 44%. Smallest sample at only 1,300 people polled, thus a higher error factor.
McClatchy/IPSOS: Obama 48%, McCain 42%. This latest poll shows the Obama lead has dipped recently by 8 percent.
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